> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://libertys-lens.ghost.io/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # It’s the Groceries, Stupid: Why the Price of Food Was the Real Ballot Question in 2025 - URL: https://libertys-lens.ghost.io/its-the-groceries-stupid-why-the/ - Published: 2025-11-07T00:02:01.000Z - Updated: 2026-08-13T16:51:15.000Z - Description: How kitchen‑table economics, not culture wars, drove backlash at the polls - Author: Graham Baughman - Tags: Newsletter, #Migrated-1786639647847, #Import 2026-08-13 16:47 This publication is entirely **reader‑supported**. We don’t answer to corporate masters deciding what we say or cover. If you find our work valuable, please consider **upgrading to a paid subscription**—or **gifting a paid subscription** to a friend who’d appreciate what we do. **Thank you** to every reader who shares our work and helps it reach new audiences. We love you all. [Subscribe](#/portal/signup) ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/da/86/da86ac05-de21-4736-8a14-89823a268247/content/images/2026/08/6b24df1a-e751-48a0-a656-cfd4998e6236_1536x1024.png) **Quick take:** Americans just sent a message, one that echoed from the checkout line to the ballot box. Nearly nine in ten say they’re stressed about the cost of groceries, with a majority calling it a major stressor, even as retailers and independent analysts link 2025’s policy mix—especially new tariffs and labor frictions—to higher food costs. Meanwhile, the official grocery index remains up year over year in 2025\. That isn’t the price relief voters were promised ([Axios](https://www.axios.com/2025/08/04/grocery-prices-tariffs-buy-now-pay-later-poll?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io) | [USA TODAY](https://www.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2025/11/03/charts-show-trumps-tariffs-effects-on-the-economy-and-consumers/86967497007/?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io) | [NBC/NIQ tracker](https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/grocery-price-tracker-inflation-trends-eggs-bread-trump-administration-rcna239569?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)). ## From 1992 to 2025: The economy, stupid. Three lines on a sign in a Little Rock headquarters helped elect Bill Clinton in 1992: “Change vs. more of the same. The economy, stupid. Don’t forget health care.” The point wasn’t rhetoric; it was focus. Prices at the kitchen table decide elections back then, and in 2025 they did again ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It%27s%5Fthe%5Feconomy,%5Fstupid?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)). ## Messaging vs. Strategy The more things change, the more they stay the same. Since their sweeping losses in 2024, Democratic strategists and commentators have been searching for the right lesson. Some say the party needs to “show up” in rural communities and factory towns; others focus on refining the message for suburban swing voters. I’ve written about these debates before, and I stand by what I’ve said: the core challenge isn’t just about slogans or outreach though, it’s about understanding the difference between electoral strategy, messaging, legislative agendas, and governing. Too often lines blur, to the detriment of both representatives and the people they serve. Trump’s team, for all its chaos, has shown a sharp instinct for the attention economy and for leveraging both MAGA media and legacy outlets. But as the struggles of DeSantis and Vance have shown, it’s not as easy as it looks—and the fundamentals still matter. --- ## Project 2025 and governing by exception So, what about MAGA’s legislative agenda and Trump’s governing strategy? Steve Bannon, a longtime Trump ally, once allegedly referred to Congress as “the state Duma”—a nod to Russia’s lower house, which can be dissolved at the president’s whim ([The Independent](https://www.the-independent.com/news/world/americas/us-politics/steve-bannon-republicans-duma-trump-b2844203.html?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)). In practice, Bannon isn’t far off: there’s little legislative ambition beyond the OBBB and the usual round of unfunded tax cuts, 80% of which go to the top 10% of earners. The real story is Trump’s approach to governing, rule by exception and not by law. This philosophy has roots in the work of Carl Schmitt, a legal theorist whose ideas about emergency power were later embraced by the Third Reich—a fact that should give anyone pause. Schmitt’s infamous line, “Sovereign is he who decides on the exception,” is less a recommendation than a warning: true power lies not in the laws themselves, but in the authority to suspend them ([GCHRJ](https://www.gchrj.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/7.-GCHRJ7.1-Dilan-%5FAtes.pdf?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io) | [Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy](https://plato.stanford.edu/entries/schmitt/?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)). This is the animating force behind Trump’s second-term playbook. He has long railed against the so-called “Deep State” and, with the help of Heritage Foundation architects and Project 2025, has worked to consolidate executive power under the “unitary executive” theory ([Heritage](https://static.heritage.org/project2025/2025%5FMandateForLeadership%5FFULL.pdf?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io) | [FactCheck.org](https://www.factcheck.org/2024/09/a-guide-to-project-2025/?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)). This theory claims the president has sole, unchecked control over the entire executive branch, including all federal agencies and employees ([Brennan Center](https://www.brennancenter.org/events/rise-imperial-presidency?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)). For congressional leaders like Mike Johnson and John Thune, this arrangement is convenient: they can feign ignorance of Trump’s actions while the White House governs by decree. But the consequences are real, and they land hardest on ordinary Americans. The worsening affordability crisis isn’t just a matter of economic forces, it’s a direct result of a governing strategy that puts power above policy, and spectacle above solutions. --- ## A Look Back On the 2024 Election Trump ran his 2024 campaign on affordability, Miller’s nativist agenda, and fantastical claims that he alone could solve foreign wars. Those of us at Liberty’s Lens honestly hoped we were wrong about what a Trump second term would look like. We’ve been ringing alarm bells since 2017, long before Liberty’s Lens was even an idea, but like all Americans we want the nation to succeed regardless of who’s in charge. Did Trump live up to his campaign promises? If the 2025 elections were any indication, voters say ‘no.’ The country saw serious inflationary spikes in 2022\. The pain at the grocery store was real. The causes were complicated—global shocks, domestic policy, and other exogenous factors all played a role. Political spin only made it harder for the public to sort fact from fiction. Still, the U.S. weathered the storm better than most—no small feat after a once-in-a-century pandemic. By the time Biden left office, many experts were calling the U.S. economy “the envy of the world” ([The Economist](https://www.economist.com/special-report/2024-10-19?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)). Less than a year later, the signs of economic backsliding are hard to ignore. ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/da/86/da86ac05-de21-4736-8a14-89823a268247/content/images/2026/08/fd687925-55bb-419a-a414-37f5aa66d540_1320x465.png) FRED CPI: All Items data shows that pandemic era inflation had returned to normal by the end of 2024 --- ## Election night, kitchen-table morning The pundits called it a referendum on culture-war maximalism. Recent headline articles are filled with masked government agents in the streets, authorized by a MAGA majority in the Supreme Court to *“seize anyone who looks Latino, speaks Spanish, and appears to work a low wage job”*, and a weaponized Justice Department targeting whoever MAGA media labels *“the enemy within”* ([American Immigration Council](https://www.americanimmigrationcouncil.org/blog/supreme-courts-decision-racial-profiling-immigration-raids/?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)). These were the promises Trump made—and kept. But for all the spectacle, none of it put food on the table or made life more affordable for working families. Beneath the headlines, voters delivered a simpler verdict: they voted with their grocery lists, not their grievances. A new AP–NORC survey shows nearly 90% of Americans are stressed about the cost of groceries, and 53% call it a major source of stress ([Axios](https://www.axios.com/2025/08/04/grocery-prices-tariffs-buy-now-pay-later-poll?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io) | [Forbes](https://www.forbes.com/sites/maryroeloffs/2025/08/04/almost-90-of-americans-are-worried-about-the-cost-of-groceries/?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)). The data is clear: consumers, not foreign exporters, are absorbing the bulk of tariff costs at checkout ([USA TODAY](https://www.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2025/11/03/charts-show-trumps-tariffs-effects-on-the-economy-and-consumers/86967497007/?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)). Retail giants—Walmart, Costco, Kroger, Albertsons—have all warned that shelf prices are rising because of Trump’s policies, and the recent uptick is just the beginning ([Accountable.US dossier](https://accountable.us/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/2025-08-06-Research-on-Grocery-Tariff-Impacts.pdf?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)). Why does this matter? Because when a supermajority tells pollsters the grocery bill is their top stressor, and the official numbers confirm prices aren’t coming down, voters punish narratives that don’t match their lived experiences. That’s a lesson the Biden and Harris campaigns learned the hard way. You can’t message your way out of inflation that people see with their own eyes, whether it’s caused by your legislative agenda, your governing strategy, or a perfect storm of events beyond anyone’s control. --- ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/da/86/da86ac05-de21-4736-8a14-89823a268247/content/images/2026/08/a1c688ef-656b-404d-b642-894e188e7abb_1536x1024-jpeg.jpg) President Donald Trump signs an Executive Order on the Administration’s tariff plans at a “Make America Wealthy Again” event, Wednesday, April 2, 2025, in the White House Rose Garden ## Promise vs. pantry On the trail, the pledge was immediate price relief. > “We’re going to get the prices down. We have to get them down. It’s too much. Groceries, cars, everything. We’re going to get the prices down. While working Americans catch up, we are going to put a temporary cap on credit card interest rates at 10%. People are being made to pay 25%. Temporary ban.” > > *Speech: Donald Trump Holds a Campaign Rally in Erie, Pennsylvania*, [**Roll Call**](https://rollcall.com/factbase/trump/transcript/donald-trump-speech-campaign-rally-erie-pennsylvania-september-29-2024/?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io) (September 29, 2024). > > “Starting on day one, we will end inflation and make America affordable again. We’ll do that. We’ve got to bring it down.” > > PBS NewsHour, *Trump delivers campaign remarks in Waunakee as vice presidential debate set to begin*, [**YouTube**](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3XyTEAGiNnA&ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io) (October 1, 2024). And in a recent 60 Minutes interview, when Norah O’Donnell noted that Americans have “seen their grocery prices go up,” Trump repeated a false claim he’s been making for months now that grocery prices are actually declining: “No, you’re wrong. They went up under Biden. Right now they’re going down. Other than beef, which we’re working on, which we can solve very quickly.” Trump returned to the claim later in the interview, insisting, “Our groceries are down” ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/03/politics/fact-check-trump-cbs-interview?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)). Nearly a year in, the numbers tell a different story. The Food-at-Home Consumer Price Index is still higher than it was a year ago, even after some categories—like eggs—saw brief dips before rising again. Independent fact-checks call the claim that “groceries are down” *a stretch at best*: while a few items have eased, many have climbed, and the overall grocery basket costs more now than it did when the year began ([BBC Verify via Yahoo](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/gas-groceries-trump-kept-promise-005151009.html?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io) | [PolitiFact](https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2025/sep/05/donald-trump/prices-energy-groceries-gasoline-inflation/?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io) | [NBC/NIQ tracker](https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/grocery-price-tracker-inflation-trends-eggs-bread-trump-administration-rcna239569?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)). Could it be that no one in this administration shops for their own groceries? --- ## What changed the grocery math - **Tariffs → higher input costs → pass-through to consumers.** Visual analyses estimate a meaningful per-household burden in 2025, and retailers openly acknowledge they can’t absorb the increases indefinitely ([USA TODAY](https://www.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2025/11/03/charts-show-trumps-tariffs-effects-on-the-economy-and-consumers/86967497007/?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io) | [Accountable.US dossier](https://accountable.us/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/2025-08-06-Research-on-Grocery-Tariff-Impacts.pdf?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)). - **Labor tightening in agriculture.** Crackdowns in sectors with heavy undocumented labor raise unit costs for harvesting and processing; researchers flagged the likely pass-through to food prices ([BBC Verify](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/gas-groceries-trump-kept-promise-005151009.html?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)). - **Exogenous shocks amplify, not offset.** Weather, cattle herd dynamics, and disease outbreaks (HPAI) all hit. Smart policy can buffer; tariffs and labor frictions did the opposite ([BBC Verify](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/gas-groceries-trump-kept-promise-005151009.html?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io) | [NBC/NIQ](https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/grocery-price-tracker-inflation-trends-eggs-bread-trump-administration-rcna239569?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)). --- ## Meanwhile: real-world strain For families living close to the margin, political brinkmanship isn’t just theater, it’s dinner on the line. The latest shutdown fight spilled over into food assistance, with courts and agencies scrambling to patch together contingency funds for SNAP and other forms of support ([CBS News](https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/government-shutdown-latest-trump-senate-republicans-filibuster/?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)). The fight is especially fraught for Democrats. On one side, they’re still carrying Carville’s old mantra, “don’t forget healthcare.” On the other, the Trump administration has openly let critical benefits lapse to maximize political pressure, using struggling families as leverage. > “Because if you do just part of this, it will reduce pressure for them to do all of it, to do their basic job, and that is reopen the government.” Republican Speaker Mike Johnson ([Yahoo](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/mike-johnson-accidentally-lets-slip-195700062.html?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)) Democrats are left trying to shield working families from another financial hit: healthcare costs rising from Medicaid cuts in the 2025 OBBB, and the expiration of ACA subsidies that help keep plans affordable in red states that refused Medicaid expansion. Stuck between a rock and a hard place, Democrats look like the only ones fighting for families who just can’t get ahead as inflation eats more of their paychecks each month. --- ![A graph with blue and orange lines AI-generated content may be incorrect.](https://storage.ghost.io/c/da/86/da86ac05-de21-4736-8a14-89823a268247/content/images/2026/08/14c0d753-aeba-4bc8-a16b-a5301c4850ee_1320x450.png) FRED CPI data shows recent inflationary trends, both with food at home and all items numbers ## So—are we moving in the right direction? The USDA’s outlook still points to more food price hikes heading into 2026, and neither public forecasts nor the retailers closest to the shelf see broad-based relief on the horizon ([USA TODAY](https://www.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2025/11/03/charts-show-trumps-tariffs-effects-on-the-economy-and-consumers/86967497007/?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io) | [Newsweek summary of ERS](https://www.newsweek.com/how-prices-common-groceries-have-changed-since-trump-took-office-2116580?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)). Voters don’t need a white paper to understand that. They just need a cart. **Bottom line:** After the pandemic, inflation on key goods, especially food, was finally cooling off. Now, prices are ticking up again, driven by a mix of policy choices and outside shocks. This administration, armed with a ‘unitary executive’ and a compliant Congress, has shown little interest in helping families hit by these costs—preferring to play politics while people struggle to make ends meet. It was tone-deaf when Biden and Harris told Americans the economy was great as they felt the pinch; it’s just as tone-deaf now. Maybe more so, since at least the last administration tried to help. This one seems more interested in “owning the libz” than in governing. Is it any wonder voters delivered a referendum on the MAGA agenda? > “We can do things during the shutdown that are irreversible, that are bad for them… like cutting vast numbers of people out, cutting things that they like, cutting programs that they like… we can do things medically, and other ways, including benefits. We can cut large numbers of people out.” > — DJT 2025’s grocery story is as much about policy as it is about price. Tariffs and labor choices added friction; weather amplified it; and families paid. Voters noticed. --- ## For readers who want the receipts - Polling on grocery stress (nearly 90% stressed; 53% “major”) — ([Axios](https://www.axios.com/2025/08/04/grocery-prices-tariffs-buy-now-pay-later-poll?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)) - Tariff burden and pass‑through to consumers; per‑household estimates — ([USA TODAY](https://www.usatoday.com/story/graphics/2025/11/03/charts-show-trumps-tariffs-effects-on-the-economy-and-consumers/86967497007/?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)) - Retailer earnings and statements on tariff pass‑through (Walmart, Costco, Kroger, Albertsons, Ahold) — ([Accountable.US](https://accountable.us/wp-content/uploads/2025/08/2025-08-06-Research-on-Grocery-Tariff-Impacts.pdf?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)) - Item‑level trends from checkout data (eggs, beef, OJ, etc.) — ([NBC/NIQ](https://www.nbcnews.com/data-graphics/grocery-price-tracker-inflation-trends-eggs-bread-trump-administration-rcna239569?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)) - Fact‑check of “groceries are down” claim — ([PolitiFact](https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2025/sep/05/donald-trump/prices-energy-groceries-gasoline-inflation/?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)) - Trump’s recent interview claim and rebuttal — ([CNN](https://www.cnn.com/2025/11/03/politics/fact-check-trump-cbs-interview?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)) - Project 2025, unitary executive context — ([Heritage](https://static.heritage.org/project2025/2025%5FMandateForLeadership%5FFULL.pdf?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io) | [FactCheck.org](https://www.factcheck.org/2024/09/a-guide-to-project-2025/?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io) | [Brennan Center](https://www.brennancenter.org/events/rise-imperial-presidency?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)) - Carville’s 1992 mantra (“It’s the economy, stupid.”) — ([Wikipedia](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It%27s%5Fthe%5Feconomy,%5Fstupid?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)) - Shutdown effects and SNAP/WIC pressure — ([USA TODAY](https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/senators-scramble-vain-ease-shutdown-110904648.html?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io) | [POLITICO](https://www.politico.com/live-updates/2025/10/28/congress/mike-johnson-shutdown-snap-00625211?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)) - SNAP cuts & enrollment impact (analyses and scoring) — ([Snopes](https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/mike-johnson-186-billion-snap/?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io) | [PolitiFact](https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2025/may/29/mike-johnson/SNAP-reconciliation-bill-tax-cuts-food/?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)) - USDA outlook for 2025–2026 grocery inflation — ([Newsweek (ERS)](https://www.newsweek.com/how-prices-common-groceries-have-changed-since-trump-took-office-2116580?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)) - FRED series for replication — ([Food at Home CPI](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1NI38&ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io)) Editor’s note: The grocery chart can be replicated from the BLS CPI series on FRED. All analysis reflects data available through early November 2025. [Leave a tip](https://donate.stripe.com/aFa3cx2qT7n75ut3eXeIw01?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io) > *— Liberty’s Lens* > > This article is provided for public interest reporting and analysis. All external links open in a new tab and point to their original publishers. [Subscribe now](#/portal/signup) [Leave a comment](#ghost-comments-root)