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# The MAGA Playbook for Undermining Elections
- URL: https://libertys-lens.ghost.io/the-maga-playbook-for-undermining/
- Published: 2026-04-26T12:02:15.000Z
- Updated: 2026-08-13T16:48:50.000Z
- Description: How voter suppression, federal overreach, and legal intimidation are converging ahead of 2026 and 2028
- Author: Graham Baughman
- Tags: Newsletter, #Migrated-1786639647847, #Import 2026-08-13 16:47

### The Warning Sign

There has been a growing concern that Trump is no longer acting like someone who actually cares about elections. He is not responsive to poll numbers the way he was in his first term, even with the markets. He is acting like someone who doesn’t care.

For some observers, that suggests the next logical step—that they are planning to cheat.

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There are, to be fair, other explanations. Trump does not have a legislative agenda. He does not care about Congress. He does not care about anyone but himself. It is also possible that he is thinking about legacy and does not care about what he considers “middling” things like midterms. Those explanations are not mutually exclusive.

But they all raise a more important question: **how high are the risks to the elections themselves?**

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### Two Escalations

Two developments from the past few months stand out as the biggest threats—not just to the midterms, but to 2028 as well.

That assessment comes aside from high‑profile legislative efforts like the SAVE Act, which seeks to impose new constraints on voter registration but has little chance of becoming law given current political realities. The more significant risk lies not in bills destined to stall, but in executive and administrative actions that bypass Congress altogether.

The first is the executive order that essentially tries to outlaw mail‑in ballots. This is the election takeover effort. It is an attempt to nationalize elections. The White House has absolutely no role in elections, yet this effort seeks to constrain, disqualify, and set rules around mail‑in ballots and voter rolls so the federal government can determine who gets to vote.

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If you [read the executive order](https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/research-reports/analyzing-presidents-executive-order-mail-voting?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io) alongside the reporting, you see DHS and DOJ officials—Trump loyalists—trying to carry out the mechanics of that order. They have not been very successful. But there are task forces inside the government that are intent on interfering with the process on the front end of elections.

The second development is the attempted raid in Fulton County. In some ways it is good that we got to see this in daylight, because it is central to how ballots are likely to be challenged in 2026.

The DOJ and FBI created a search warrant based on recycled, debunked election lies in order to get into Fulton County and seize ballots. The critical failure point was the federal magistrate judge who approved that warrant. There is a tradition of judges deferring to the DOJ and FBI that is no longer deserved, especially after Trump attempted to use them to overturn the 2020 election. If that warrant had been scrutinized properly, it never should have been signed.

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### How Election Interference Actually Works

This is the playbook for challenging results after elections.

Because elections are decentralized, the FBI cannot simply seize control. But if they can get a faulty warrant approved, that becomes the choke point. That is where pressure converges—on judges, on local officials, on procedures that still carry an aura of legitimacy.

So how do you address that threat before it is too late?

On the front end, it starts with public education—explaining how ballots are being targeted for disqualification and showing that these are recycled tactics from 2020\. The good news is that there are no new ideas here. The same lies keep coming back because election denialism has been institutionalized inside the federal government.

Mail‑in ballots remain the central focus. People need to be extremely tuned into what is happening there.

And all of this is layered atop the standard voter‑suppression playbook—routine voter‑roll purges, polling‑place closures, and administrative choke points that quietly shape who can vote—making today’s threats less a departure than an escalation.

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### Deceive, Disrupt, Deny

Even so, there is an understandable question about the practical mechanics. It is one thing to contaminate the idea of mail‑in voting so that officials feel justified throwing out ballots after the fact. It is another to believe mail‑in voting can simply be stopped altogether on a national scale.

The answer is that both avenues are being pursued. There is a desire to change the rules on the front end, even if those efforts fail and are fought in court. There are also efforts to create voter files that limit who can vote by mail. Many ideas are floating around.

But the threat can be understood most clearly in three buckets.

First, deceive voters about the voting process—especially mail‑in ballots—so people believe elections are fraudulent.  
Second, disrupt the election process—by changing rules or throwing out ballots.  
Third, deny results they do not like.

**Deceive. Disrupt. Deny.**

They do not need to convince everyone for this to be dangerous. Introducing the lie, and then using it to justify interference—such as securing a warrant to seize ballots—is itself a disruption.

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### Fewer Guardrails, Narrower Margins

That concern is compounded by the dismantling of election guardrails that existed in 2020\. After Chris Krebs said the 2020 election was secure, Trump gutted CISA rather than replacing its leadership. [ProPublica reporting](https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/insight/trump-administration-replaces-75-election-security-officials-with-loyalists/gm-GM71E54FC5?gemSnapshotKey=GM71E54FC5-snapshot-8&uxmode=ruby&ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io) shows that roughly 75 election‑related officials across federal agencies either left or were fired and were replaced by a much smaller group of people—many of whom were involved in efforts to overturn the 2020 election or were closely associated with those who were.

Since Trump’s second term began, agreeing with the 2020 election lies has effectively been a condition of employment. These officials self‑selected.

At the same time, many of the people brought in are simply not very effective. Promised political prosecutions have largely failed to materialize because these officials cannot execute. The purge is serious, but there is also institutional weakness on their side.

The risk, however, does not require perfection.

You do not need nationwide cheating. If a close Senate race in one red state comes down to under one percent, throwing out enough ballots there could flip control of the chamber. States like Iowa, Alaska, Florida, or Texas—all run by election deniers—make that scenario plausible. That risk is far more realistic than the claim that elections will simply end forever.

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### What Still Holds—and What Doesn’t

In past elections, there has always been a laser focus on specific counties—Fulton, Maricopa, Antrim. Because elections are decentralized, stealing one requires a lot of accomplices. There are many election deniers in power, but there may still not be enough to steal an election outright once public scrutiny and pressure kick in.

Georgia in 2020 is the clearest example of that.

Most of the system will likely hold again. But only if the threat is recognized for what it is—not hypothetical, not abstract, but procedural, targeted, and already underway.

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