> ## Content Index > Fetch the complete content index at: https://libertys-lens.ghost.io/llms.txt > Use this file to discover other available public pages before exploring further. # Trump Is Losing His Grip — And Republicans Can Feel It - URL: https://libertys-lens.ghost.io/trump-is-losing-his-grip-and-republicans/ - Published: 2026-05-24T09:12:10.000Z - Updated: 2026-08-13T19:57:56.000Z - Description: Not rebellion. Not yet. But the incentives are changing—and Republicans are beginning to act like it. - Author: Graham Baughman - Tags: Newsletter, #Migrated-1786639647847, #Import 2026-08-13 16:47 **Liberty’s Lens is entirely reader‑supported.** We don’t answer to corporate masters deciding what we say or what we cover. If you find our work valuable, please consider upgrading to a paid subscription. You can take **20% off with** [**this coupon**](#/portal/signup) — and support independent media for about the price of a coffee per month. [Get 20% off forever](#/portal/signup) You can also gift a paid subscription to a friend who’d appreciate what we do. Thank you to every reader who shares our work and helps it reach new audiences. We couldn’t do this without you. We love you all. --- [Buy me a coffee!](https://donate.stripe.com/5kQ5kF0iLfTD2ihcPxeIw02?ref=libertys-lens.ghost.io) In Trump’s America, we have to take wins where we can get them. And what we’re seeing right now—modest, but real—is Republican pushback on the Hill. Not theoretical pushback. Not anonymous grumbling. Actual resistance. The reconciliation bill has been derailed. Senators from Tom Tillis to Tommy Tuberville aren’t thrilled. Todd Blanche went over to the Senate to try to win people over—essentially promising Republican senators that they too could draw from Trump’s corrupt settlement fund. And it’s not working. That matters. Because what’s happening here isn’t just opposition to a single bill. Far-right political strategist and former White House Chief Strategist Steve Bannon once likened the Republican-controlled Congress under Donald Trump to the Russian Duma—Vladimir Putin’s largely ceremonial parliamentary assembly—implying that the legislature had abdicated its role, surrendering authority to the executive branch. I couldn’t say I disagreed with that assessment. But perhaps that is finally beginning to change. Perhaps, for some of them, enough is finally enough. Part of this is simply a reflection of the unpopularity of the slush fund. The proposal itself is so odious—so blatantly a vehicle to reward the president’s loyalists—that even the Gumby‑like flexibility of modern Republican officials has found its limit. But that alone doesn’t explain what we’re seeing. [From Riot to Reward: A Payday for Trump’s “Very Fine People”This Substack is reader-supported. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/da/86/da86ac05-de21-4736-8a14-89823a268247/content/images/2026/08/95b908f6-200b-45db-8675-f9062b74699b_1280x1280-12.png)Liberty's LensLiberty's Lens![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/da/86/da86ac05-de21-4736-8a14-89823a268247/content/images/2026/08/bcada7f3-4f02-4204-907c-ccdca4ae78c7_1536x1024.png)](https://libertys-lens.ghost.io/from-riot-to-reward-a-payday-for/) What’s emerging looks less like disagreement and more like something approaching revolt—not ideological, but institutional and personal. The Senate is its own ecosystem. It’s an institution with its own norms, its own hierarchies, and its own interests. And those interests are beginning to diverge from Trump’s. Take Texas. Instead of reinforcing a reliable Republican seat, Trump stepped in and blew it up—backing a candidate his own party views as toxic and handing Democrats a real opening in a race they were never supposed to win. That doesn’t inspire loyalty. It generates anger. Institutional anger. Personal anger. And that anger looks for outlets. [Subscribe now](#/portal/signup) At the same time, a “revenge caucus” is quietly forming—made up of the very people Trump has targeted, undermined, or forced into difficult primaries. Cassidy. Tillis. Collins, navigating her own survival calculus. Lawmakers who increasingly feel they have nothing left to lose by bucking him. His grip is weakening, and they’re acting accordingly. We’ve seen it in support for a war powers resolution around Iran, and in the stripping of funding for his prized ballroom project—small but telling signs of a legislature willing, at least occasionally, to say no. The irony is that the very tool Trump used to maintain control—retribution—is starting to backfire. His team spent years warning Republicans: don’t cross him, he’s the greatest political winner ever. And yes, there were successes. Cassidy lost. Massie was wounded. Primaries enforced discipline. But increasingly, the question is: to what end? Because retribution without strategy doesn’t consolidate power—it creates enemies. And at a certain point, those enemies start looking for opportunities to push back. That opportunity has arrived in part because of something mundane but politically decisive: the calendar. Filing deadlines are passing. Primaries are closing. Members who were once constrained by fear of a Trump-backed challenger now find themselves with breathing room. Safer. Less exposed. More willing to move. For someone like Brian Fitzpatrick, whose primary is already behind him, that means something tangible: more maneuvering room to push back, to distance, to stop pretending. The sands are shifting. At the same time, Trump is actively making the problem worse. He is mismanaging people he needs—attacking members, going after their families, and turning what should be relationships of mutual dependence into sources of tension. He went after Fitzpatrick’s wife, a Fox News reporter, in a public tirade—exactly the kind of petty, personal grievance that alienates allies he cannot afford to lose. In a chamber defined by razor‑thin margins, that kind of behavior carries real consequences. Because in an election year, senators aren’t asking philosophical questions. They’re asking a simpler one: Is the president helping me get reelected? And increasingly, the answer is no. In fact, the opposite. Trump’s decisions—like the Cornyn episode in Texas—aren’t strengthening the party’s position. They’re creating vulnerabilities. Giving Democrats openings. Threatening control of the Senate itself. That changes the incentive structure. And when the incentives change, behavior follows. As the midterms approach and Trump heads back onto the campaign trail, a quieter question emerges: will Republican candidates still rush to stand beside him—or will they find reasons to be elsewhere? [The MAGA Playbook for Undermining ElectionsThe Warning Sign![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/da/86/da86ac05-de21-4736-8a14-89823a268247/content/images/2026/08/95b908f6-200b-45db-8675-f9062b74699b_1280x1280-13.png)Liberty's LensLiberty's Lens![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/da/86/da86ac05-de21-4736-8a14-89823a268247/content/images/2026/08/bdc95390-4fb2-4e8c-b9dd-7192ed4b4861_1536x1024-1.png)](https://libertys-lens.ghost.io/the-maga-playbook-for-undermining/) A rally invitation comes in. Trump will be in town. Big event. Cameras everywhere. A year ago, the response is automatic: *Get me there early. I want the picture.* Now, the calculation may be different. Perhaps Trump is no longer an asset they want to be seen with. Perhaps the thought—spoken quietly, if at all—is this: *This might not last. This might not be worth it.* A flurry of mid-May surveys show Trump’s national popularity dipping into historically low territory for an incumbent president: - **American Research Group**: Found a record-low **31% approval** rating against 64% disapproval, marking his weakest showing across both terms. - **The New York Times/Siena College**: Logged a record-low **37% approval** and an unprecedented **59% disapproval**. Historical averages indicate no president has remained below 38% for more than a few days over the last 17 years. - **Reuters/Ipsos**: Hit a second-term low of **34% to 35%**, down sharply from the start of his current term. - **Associated Press-NORC / NBC News**: Recorded his job approval at **33%** and **37%** respectively, setting new personal baselines for his current administration. - **Silver Bulletin**: Polling analyst Nate Silver’s aggregate tracker placed Trump’s net approval at a second-term low of **\-18.9 to -22.** Republicans up for election or re-election have been watching those numbers closely. They’ve seen approval slide, steadily and persistently. They’ve watched Trump become more erratic, more unpredictable, more volatile. And so they begin doing what politicians always do when conditions turn: They prepare for bad weather. They plan for survival. And in that calculation, proximity to Trump no longer helps. It hurts. That shift is reinforced by something deeper. Pollsters have long asked Republican voters a simple question: are you a Trump Republican or a party Republican? That number moves. When Trump is strong, it rises. When he weakens, it falls. And right now, it’s moving in the wrong direction. The glue that holds his coalition together is elastic. It stretches. It doesn’t break all at once—but it loosens. And when it loosens, space opens for dissent, distance, and eventually independence. Overlay that with collapsing approval, and the effect compounds. Because once a president drops into the 40s—and especially the 30s—something else takes hold: Political gravity. Everything becomes their fault. Economic stagnation? Their fault. Bad weather? Somehow still their fault. Any negative event finds its way back to the president. It’s a Velcro effect. The lower the numbers go, the more everything sticks. And once that happens, the calculus for everyone around them shifts again. Standing next to that figure doesn’t share power. It absorbs blame. That’s where Trump is now. Not suddenly cast out. Not instantly abandoned. Political movements built around strongmen fail two ways: gradually, and then all at once. This is not inevitability. But the signs are there. Where before, Trump could never fail—only be failed—now members of his own party are beginning to say it aloud. Thom Tillis called his so‑called anti‑weaponization fund “stupid on stilts”—a “payout pot for punks.” First came the Epstein Files Transparency Act, passing over his objections. Now they’re stripping funding for his ballroom—once treated as untouchable—and signaling a willingness, however tentative, to put limits on his power. These aren’t acts of open rebellion. Not yet. They’re something quieter—limited, self-interested, but not nothing. A legislature that once behaved like an extension of the executive branch is starting, haltingly, to reclaim its own instincts for self-preservation. Not because of principle. Not because of courage. But because the incentives have changed—and they can feel it. --- ![](https://storage.ghost.io/c/da/86/da86ac05-de21-4736-8a14-89823a268247/content/images/2026/08/c7a610d4-c0cf-48d7-a0d9-6902957a8e8e_1536x1024-12.png) The Trump regime’s authoritarian project depends on misinformation and disinformation. It thrives in darkness and resists scrutiny. That’s why exposure matters — and why independent media does too. A free society depends on a free press. Not one shaped by access, intimidation, or political loyalty, but one willing to report what those in power would rather keep hidden. *Liberty’s Lens* exists for that purpose. We’re independent, reader‑supported, and committed to reporting without fear or favor. If that work matters to you, consider supporting it by subscribing — free or paid. Paid subscriptions directly fund our reporting, and right now you can subscribe at **20% off with** [**this coupon**](#/portal/signup), roughly the cost of a monthly coffee. 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